Friday, August 28, 2009

Crude steel hit the roof

China Iron and Steel Association showed daily production was running at an all time peak of 1.67 million tonnes in the first 10 days of the month.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the figure is nearly 10% higher than CISA's figure for daily production in early July and 2% higher than the daily average for all of July when output reached a record 50.68 million tonnes.

If the same rate continues throughout August, the full month could show steel output of 52 million tonnes in August up by 22% from a year before

The early August figure equates to an annualized production rate of nearly 610 million tonnes, more than 20% above actual production of 500 million tonnes in 2008.

Mr Henry Liu Shanghai based Macquarie Bank analyst said "August crude steel output will surely hit a record, but the production rate could retreat a little in middle and late August because of slipping steel prices. But other analysts see continued high production rates at China's blast furnaces. That could help revive iron ore prices, which fell after benchmark spot steel prices plunged in the last two weeks having hit a 10 month high in early August.”

Mr Hu Kai analyst at Umetal a consultancy said "Iron ore prices could rebound from the recent correction in September. Major steel mills have set up high prices for September and there are no signs of a production slowdown, so demand is always there."

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